Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 75274.647939 79504.219174 83735.971003 88284.569925 93032.381670 97838.885515 103069.565413
2026-02-08 68446.520742 74892.983470 81524.565411 88847.163969 96696.665451 104849.041157 113946.626382
2026-02-15 63132.724482 71052.990237 79382.188251 88775.447393 99054.612684 109941.935759 122325.703939
2026-02-22 59918.329851 69032.319388 78792.996942 89992.585416 102455.647488 115866.342699 131354.797957
2026-03-01 57056.897245 67106.231030 78042.054156 90780.524501 105163.174675 120850.962613 139206.777743
2026-03-08 54090.013130 64835.485213 76701.358103 90714.010635 106744.142735 124443.535560 145395.446200
2026-03-15 51748.780791 63116.910441 75839.322964 91051.586191 108661.139291 128318.411340 151830.944125
2026-03-22 50385.710541 62427.188599 76066.391586 92557.622872 111849.963209 133595.699315 159845.830223
2026-03-29 48930.070941 61536.938704 75980.675532 93629.450036 114481.492939 138199.655384 167076.411648
2026-04-05 47418.438754 60498.193807 75648.589582 94347.423336 116648.683612 142233.737936 173634.818012
2026-04-12 45625.117129 59038.801753 74743.794688 94318.023593 117877.733498 145132.088828 178842.535552
2026-04-19 44082.004672 57817.137048 74063.849113 94502.298030 119315.437189 148244.997375 184288.676203
2026-04-26 42432.901134 56422.598274 73142.845644 94375.107236 120376.464213 150929.422895 189272.893589
2026-05-03 41266.672808 55586.025834 72867.943895 95006.962522 122338.944612 154689.802132 195563.412380
2026-05-10 39832.129803 54357.501981 72060.720577 94939.655100 123413.881307 157361.110680 200538.205003
2026-05-17 39135.872096 54037.769114 72360.487565 96226.995289 126144.697146 162042.565432 207970.807445
2026-05-24 38272.473346 53468.012108 72316.239439 97059.497564 128297.499260 166017.428090 214557.423309
2026-05-31 37047.528689 52386.103583 71584.243187 96989.355320 129296.897359 168560.651649 219385.965972
2026-06-07 36078.433866 51606.266647 71208.620396 97345.843568 130813.038980 171733.484398 224996.875502
2026-06-14 35697.930464 51588.414334 71802.106653 98936.005651 133890.458827 176858.309599 233059.023582
2026-06-21 35143.972819 51317.140473 72049.256787 100067.543414 136381.123591 181258.780735 240242.649526
2026-06-28 34462.154510 50850.042616 72020.508788 100825.441440 138385.841014 185052.218708 246683.439206
2026-07-05 33490.553589 49959.308173 71406.649819 100794.408047 139356.743767 187532.592393 251474.640289